Real Estate Prices Slump Toward 2003 Levels

Remember the time when an upmarket property in Malabar Hill Mumbai cost Rs 12,000-17,000 per sq ft. The same situation is likely to come back within a few months according to real estate agents in Mumbai. Prices here had touched between Rs 25,000 to Rs 45,000 per square feet.

New Delhi too is seeing a clear reversal in times. Builders who purchased properties in early 2008 are now wriggling out of deals. In early 2008, a builder had negotiated a Rs 18-crore deal for a 2,925 sq ft house in New Delhi’s upscale Defence Colony area. His objective was to demolish the house sitting on the land and develop apartments, hoping for a return of about 30 percent. However, today he has opted out of the deal losing even the Rs 50 lakh paid he had paid as token money. The same property is now being valued at Rs 9-10 crore.

Developers are dropping prices but the buyers are simply not coming. It is likely that once the panic button is hit, prices could touch rock bottom within months. There are no financiers in the market, and in Delhi, volumes are down 95 percent from peak. New projects launched are 40 percent cheaper than before. NCR regions are also hit. A 11,250 sq ft home in Golf Links, which was purchased for Rs 70 crore, is now available for Rs 50 crore, but there are few takers.

Mumbai's troubled times continue. Sometime ago a deal was made in Usha Kiran Apartments, on Altamount Road, by an executive of a financial broker. Within days of almost finalizing the deal, the executive backed out. Ten months ago, actor Vinod Khanna offered to pay Rs 1.25 lakh per sq ft for a 2,500 sq ft apartment for the ultra-luxury apartments, El Palazzo, located in the Hanging Gardens area of Malabar Hill. Subsequently Khanna backed out, but it was a wise decision.

Current prices in Il Palazzo are around Rs 70,000 to Rs 75,000 per sq ft. Near here, in Pedder Road, rates are around Rs 45,000 per sq ft. A few kilometers away, in Mumbai's CBD, Nariman Point, a London-based Indian national acquired a 3,475 sq ft property at NCPA Apartments, at Rs 97,842 per sq ft, nearly six months ago, but rates there are almost half that now.

In the central Mumbai’s Worli and Lower Parel areas, rates are down to Rs 12,000-18,000 per sq ft, while in Bandra they have fallen by more than a fifth to Rs 15,000-25,000.

Where price drops have been of the order of 50 percent, buyers appear to be showing interest. Orbit Corporation is now asking Rs 16,000 per sq ft for its new project in Lower Parel down from Rs 35,000 per sq ft.

In India’s technology capital Bangalore, prices have fallen by up to 25 percent in some area, says a Morgan Stanley report, and DLF, India’s biggest real estate company, cut rates by about 30 percent at its upcoming project.

Brigade Group's The Gateway project, one of the oldest localities in town, is quoting at Rs 5,090 per sq ft against Rs 5,790 per sq ft last year. Second sales are going at Rs 4,700-Rs 4,800 per square ft.

Kolkata too is cooling down on the real estate front. Prices are off their mid-2008 peaks. In areas such as Ballygunge Circular Road, Sunny Park and Queens Park rates, which were Rs 8,500-10,000 per sq ft in January 2008 jumped to Rs 13,000-14,000 in June-July before dropping to Rs 9,000-11,000. Residential properties sold at Rs 12,000-15,000 per sq ft last year, are averaging Rs 9,000-10,000 per sq ft now.

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Blame the Government for Real Estate Mania

The best way to dampen real estate spiral is to make capital gains on real estate compulsory and not provide any kind of exit routes. After all why should reinvestment back in to property save you capital gains tax.

When you purchase shares of Tata Steel, and sell it for a profit, you pay capital gains tax on that transaction, whether or not you reinvest the money in to Infosys or not. So, why should a person selling his apartment in Mumbai be allowed to save tax, but only if he reinvests the proceeds in to an apartment in Bangalore?

The Indian government is guilty of keeping an excessive real estate spiral in place. It has kept the real estate boom going, by providing an exit route for real estate investors, via reinvestment in property.

In order to save capital gains tax on property the government says that you can reinvest the money within one year in to real estate and avoid payment of capital gains tax. Alternatively, you lock this money in to a capital gains bonds, which pays you 5 percent each year, for the next five years. At the end of the tenure the capital and the interest becomes tax-free. The capital gains on real estate is taxed at 20 percent for long-term capital gains and 30 percent for short-term capital gains.

Who picks property at Rs 2 per square feet and sells it at Rs 2000 per square feet. It is none but politicians, especially those who are in power. The Indian government has perpetuated a constant stream of investment in real estate by introducing this exit on capital gains.

As Sam Zell said, there is no shortage of land in India, but there is shortage of zoned land, which means land freed for real estate development. This land is controlled by the government. Zoned land is never made available to individual home buyers.

Why is it, that people who can pay Rs 30,000 per square feet for an apartment are not allowed to pay Rs 17,000 per square feet for land, on which they can build their own homes.

The government's job is to focus on creating new cities, by providing infrastructure (excuse this buzzword) - in simple term, water, electricity and roads. Instead, politicians focus on acquiring cheap land, doubling FSI, and selling them at profits that even the stock market cannot provide. This is why real estate is such a darling of the chosen few in India.

Thus, it makes sense, that when one votes, it is always in the best interest of the people to ensure that one single party never remains in power for more than one term. If it is a choice between theivves, the best thing a voter can do is to divide the spoils and exercise at least one wee bit of control over the overall process.

Always vote out the incumbent government, and bring in a new one. This is the sanest thing to do. Irrespective of what the party stands for, just make sure they do not rule for more than one year.

MHCI Chief Seeks Greater Fools in Gulf NRIs

Trust desperate real estate developers to act even more foolishly. Zubin Mehta, CEO of the Maharashtra Chamber of Housing Industry (MCHI), is seeking greater fools for his real estate industry a little too late in the day, when even the fools have lost their money.

Mehta said MCHI is targeting UAE NRIs to purchase real estate projects in India, his argument being NRIs could stand to gain up to 20 percent if they purchase now, since the Indian rupee has fallen by this value against the US dollar.

Why UAE NRIs? He said that these folks work to buy a home in India, unlike those in UK and US, who are given residential status and further citizenship in those countries. Good deals are now available, said Mehta, pointing to a depreciating rupee, discounts from builders, facilities like free parking and a stamp duty write-off.

However, Mehta would have a tough task convincing Gulf NRIs, who have already burned their money investing in the Dubai real estate market. Real estate in the Burj Tower area of Dubai is reported to have fallen 50 percent in last three weeks.

Mehta also added that he expects the Indian real estate market to perk up January. Now this is really desperation.

The Denial of Reality - Arvind Singhal

There is no sign of let-up in the economic turbulence all around us. While there is, finally, some realization within the prime minister's office and the key economic ministries that India is not insulated from the global economy and that serious measures have to be undertaken to prevent the Indian economy from melting down too, it is surprising to observe the response of corporate India to this situation.

As if on cue from the USA, where there is an increasing clamour for more government bailouts, many in the Indian private sector have started to make similar noises. Of all those who have been the most vocal in seeking government support, subsidy and protectionism, the case being put up by the realty sector is the most disturbing. When the recent economic boom started in 2003, land prices in posh Delhi localities ranged from Rs 40,000 to Rs 60,000 per square yard. Builders’ flats in Gurgaon for middle-income customers were being offered for booking at Rs 2,200-2,500 per square foot, while premium residential developments in South Mumbai came to market at Rs 4,000 per square foot. Office rentals in Gurgaon were at Rs 30-35 per square foot per month while in Mumbai, they hovered around Rs 100 or so. In April 2008, the same prices respectively had shot up to Rs 400,000 per square yard, Rs 6,000 and Rs 28,000 per square foot, and Rs 120 and Rs 400 per square foot per month.

While this increase, ranging from 300 per cent to 1,000 per cent, put many Indian developers on the Forbes list of billionaires, it also resulted in the destruction of the primary demand for residential and commercial property from actual users since it became unaffordable and nonviable, and brought only speculators to the market. In this situation, the noise from the real estate sector exhorting the government to facilitate reduction in the home loan rates is nothing but a denial of the reality that unless the property prices are scaled back to 2003 (or even 2005) levels — making them affordable/commercially viable for actual users once again — the realty sector will not see a boom again irrespective of the lending rates.

Contact Abhinav at abhinav@technopak.com

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Arun Nanda: Another Wishful Thinking CEO

Have you not witnessed time and again, the CEO of Parsvnath coming on CNBC and saying that there was no slowdown and there was no cash problem? Did you not see Sanjay Puri, CEO of Unitech say that analysts do not know how to value real estate companies?

Since then, all these companies have had their stock prices relentlessly banged to almost a 1oth of their 52-week highs. Now, here is another joker in the pack.

Arun Nanda, executive director of Mahindra and Mahindra said there is no slowdown in its real estate projects, even though there is slump in demand.

“We are not slowing down on any of our projects. Jaipur is rocking, Chennai is doing well, city-based projects such as Faridabad are also doing well,” he was quoted as saying on the sidelines of the India Economic Summit.

Nanda, an executive director of the company, was quoted dishing out more gems:

"Fundamentals of real estate have not changed," he said.

"We have actually got cash in the bank," he said, adding there is a huge demand in 30 to 40 lakh apartments segment. He, however, said the housing loan segment is facing problems, adding there were no funding issues for its projects and the company’s affordable housing projects are not going to disappear, but he did admit that investors are not coming forward.

“Demand has been put on back-burner and interest rates are hurting people,” Nanda said. He also informed those present that Sebi approval for the initial public offering of Mahindra Holidays and Resorts Ltd.

Sure you have heard of the proverbial deer freezing in the headlights. Or is this simple a case of self-denial?

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Unitech Forced to Sell New Delhi Head Office

The morass that Indian real estate companies have sunk in to is now becoming glaringly evident. The nation's second-largest property company, Unitech, is now forced to sell its New Delhi office of over 2 lakh sq ft, to raise cash and meet demands from lenders.

Unitech had borrowed an undisclosed sum from HDFC, using the Saket head office as collateral, while HDFC sources claim this number to be Rs 30 crore.

Unitech sources said that HDFC has agreed to purchase this property for Rs 450-500 crore, and that formal agreement is expected to be signed end of this month. Unitech had itself purchased this land for over Rs 127 crore.

HDFC clearly refused to comment on this.

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Parvsnath's Retail Plans Shelved

Parsvnath Developers has put its retail foray in to cold storage, citing adverse market conditions as the reason.

Parsvnath had plans for 5-10 front-end stores by this fiscal, backed by an international retail partner for logistics. The plan had included hypermarkets, food joints, and very large retail stores of about 2.5-3 lakh sq ft. Initially, the plans were to roll out stores in Delhi and Mumbai, followed by other cities. Parsvnath even formed a subsidiary, Parsvnath Retail Ltd., for its retail business and had acquired 5.5 million sq ft. of space across the country.

However, now due to the adverse market conditions caused by the global financial crisis and the resultant economic slowdown, these plans have been postponed indefinitely, and could be resurrected when market conditions improve.

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Emaar-MGF's Gupta Shellshocked by Real Estate Downturn

Emaar-MGF's MD Shravan Gupta appears dumbed down by the sudden downturn in the real estate business in India, and hence needs to read a book about Jack Welch, where he would learn that one of the premises for success is to "Look at things as they are, and not as they were or as you wish them to be".

The executive vice chairman and managing director of Emaar-MGF Land, appears to be making surreal statements about the importance of real estate in India, despite the fact that his company's IPO bombed early in the year, even before its launch, and was instrumental in providing one of the early clues that the real estate market in India would go in to a tailspin too.

“The present turbulence will make the real estate grow strong and it will emerge stronger after this phase,” said Shravan Gupta, executive vice-chairman & MD of Emaar MGF Land Private.

In the stock markets, you are told not to live on hope or you will die in despair.

Gupta feels the importance to the real estate sector a trifle underrated and it should be given more importance. Sure, how about the regulators coming up with a housing index which can be traded on the NSE?

Gupta's words border on being delusionary when he says that in the present scenario, sentiments were overpowering people’s thoughts rather than actual ground conditions. The effect of the global financial condition is certainly felt in India but according to him it’s not as bad as it is portrayed.

“Demand for homes does exist today," he says. Well, they do in the US too, where people still need to buy homes to live. According to Gupta, it is just that the buyer is in a state of uncertainty looking into the world around him. In his view, it is not bad loans but the high lending interest rates that are driving away the buyers and the sector is in a stage of hibernation but no real slowdown is seen.

According to Gupta, prices in some cities may have gone up on the basis of lack of supply but still in India real estate is under-priced when compared to the rest of world.

What he suggests is that a collective force of the real estate developers should be presented before the government to implement certain uniform policies and regulations, which can benefit both the buyer and the developer.

A few months ago, the MD of Unitech had come on television to say that analysts do not know how to value real estate companies. Since then Unitech has plummetted from Rs 220 to Rs 30. The MD of Parsvnath had cockily said that there was no slowdown. The shares of his company have plumetted from Rs 200 to Rs 50.

Shravan Gupta should thank himself his company is not listed as yet.

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Navi Mumbai's Palm Beach Road prices slump 50%

It would be overkill to write about the fall of the real estate market which we have been tracking here since we gave a call that in February 2008, the realty market in India had made a top. It still took some time for an official confirmation of the crash in real estate prices, but today the Times of India (Mumbai) confirmed that the famous Palm Beach Road in Vashi has seen an almost 50% crash in real estate apartment prices.

For starters, this is just the beginning. Builders are willing to sell swiftly without any fuss. While a few months ago, home buyers were willing to invest by putting down payments even before the plinth was raised, today no one is ready to even consider a ready apartment.

Previously touted as the Marine Drive of Vashi, the 9 km Palm Beach Road, was becoming a upscale real estate stretch between Vashi and Belapur. Today, plauged by zero-sales and a crashing stock market, in which real estate stocks have fallen more than 90% of their high values, On paper, residential sales are still sitting pretty at Rs 7,500 to Rs 9,000 per square foot, but with near-zero sales and a volatile market, panicky developers and regretful investors are selling for as low as Rs 4,500.

Navin Makhija is a director with the Wadhwa Group, which is stuck with the biggest project—six towers of 25 floors each on Palm Beach Road. He tangentially acknowledges the slump in rates. "In these days when the global market is bad, sales are down and so is sentiment. It's natural that some will offer lower rates to sell houses," he says.

Makhija adds that for their Palm Beach Residency project, prices have been "internally lowered to Rs 7,000 to 8,000 psf. We are not going to make any sales for the next one-and-a-half months, but hopefully things will pick up", he says.

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South Mumbai Slumps; Jolly Maker Flat has no Takers

An apartment in Jolly Maker Apartment I and II, has no takers despite a 27 percent price cut.

Located in the prime residential area of Cuffe Parade, in the southern part of Mumbai, this flat - measuring 1,700 sq ft carpet area - was priced at Rs 18 crore in January 2008. Today, even at a discounted Rs 13 crore, the apartment remains unsold. [pic: World Trade Center and IDBI Tower, located near the JMA I and II]

Investors who rode the wave of the great Indian real estate juggernaut of 2004-2008 are now wringing their hands. Not just individuals, but even corporate speculators, unrelated to the realty business, who were lured in to real estate speculation, are now stuck.

Consider another case of an apartment that Siemens India put up for an auction sale in June 2008. With a base price of Rs 4 crore, the auction received 3 interests, two of whom bid Rs 3.75 crore each - in what appears to be a coordinated bid - lower than the base price. In better times, Siemens would have had a choc-o-bloc room with bidders vying to outdo each other. Forget a significant premium, Siemens had to contend with a lower price.

Cut to individual investors, who picked up properties at severely high premiums in areas like Noida, Gurgaon and Greater Noida, as well as in Mumbai and Bangalore. Almost all of them, loaded with floating rate interest loans, are now facing higher interest charges, as the value of their properties are slipping. They all face the prospect of a negative equity, where the monthly EMI is higher than the monthly return that such an investment would face in a riskfree bank deposit.

Declines of up to 30% are already being seen in many areas of the cities. Even areas which are usually considered hot and insulated from price cuts - like South Mumbai - have seen a 15% decline. The major victims of these declines are investors - those who purchased homes with an intention of selling them to genuine users for hefty prices. In Delhi and its suburbs, nearly two of three residential transactions are resales.

The main attraction for investors was the fact that property returned 200-300% for those who invested in late 2003 to early 2004. Investors would take loans, book the apartments, and sell them off before the year was through. This does not appear to be the option any more, and with less interest from new investors, demand has tapered off, leaving investors stranded with high loans and declining value.

The lack of interest is affecting residential developers too. Residential projects are usually self-financing in nature, meaning developers use the money they get from customer advances to fund the development. This money is used by builders to build projects, making their investments virtually riskfree. With investors shying away from new realty projects, developers are finding it tough to get finance for their projects.

The high cost of raw materials is also impacting developers, who are now focusing on completing projects rather than signing on new ones. Investors continue to hold on to their properties, latching on to the ubiquitous hope, that prices would rise.

Discounts abound the realty space. Apartments at Parsvnath City in Dharuhera near Delhi, have a list price of Rs 1,800 per sq ft, but even with a discount of 4% buyers are hard to come by. In Bangalore, a 2-bedroom apartment located in Indiranagar, purchased for Rs 29 lakh, three years ago is now available for Rs 34 lakh, 20 percent less than what it cost six months ago.

However, there does not appear a respite in sight. Another 15 percent correction is expected by property market consultants, and with exhibitions of distress sales of apartments planned by real-estate service providers, it may soon be a bonanza time for bargain hunters.

Read the Livemint story here

EMI Holidays: India's Subprime in the Making

An eerie trend is rearing its ugly face as builders get desperate to prop the flagging sales of apartments. In an echo of what caused the subprime crisis in the US, builders are now luring home buyers with loan options that resemble the exotic mortgages of the US.

Trends reported in Delhi point to EMI holidays, where you book an apartment by paying 10-15% down payment of the apartment's cost - determined by the builder - and arrange for your bank loan. Once you have your bank loan in place, the interest component would be paid by the builder until the flat is ready. Once possession is handed over, usually 18-24 months, you begin paying the balance EMIs.

Even in a seemingly straightforward home loan industry in India, loans can take on subtle flavors not easily visible to the borrower. There are all kinds of caveats loaded in to the agreements which emerge only in the event of a dispute. The EMI itself comprises a capital component and an interest component, which is determined by the bank.

Typically, an EMI holiday means no EMI is to be paid by the borrower until the possession of the apartment is given. This basically means the borrower does not have to pay the capital component until the apartment is in his possession. This non-payment of capital will obviously attract an interest which will be calculated and added on to the balance EMIs, which kick in after possession - there is indeed no free lunch. Home loan borrowers are seldom clear about the underlying structure of these loans.

Now, as far as the interest component of the EMI goes, this would be 'happily' shelled out by the builder. At 10% per annum, it is a steal for all builders, who now have ready access to the cash, since under RBI regulations, real estate funding is not automatically available from domestic banks.

EMI holidays have apparently impressed local Citigroup analysts, Ashish Jagnani and Aditya Narain, who have written glowing reports that such ideas would boost transaction activity. Perhaps they should consult their global chief, Vikram Pandit, who is sulking and brooding about how to make good the $400 writedowns Citibank had to endure, arising from similar kind of loans, which the bank had encouraged in the US.

In my view, EMI holidays are an indirect way of providing builders with funds, and an means to keep housing prices at current ridiculously high levels. Since the RBI has tightened its noose around banks lending for the real estate sector, they have come up with such schemes which contravene the law without transgression. Reports say that such trends are mostly a Delhi phenomenon, but this is not entirely true. HDFC Bank in fact offers a similar scheme for Nahar's Amrit Shakti Project in Powai, Mumbai. [Read the story here]

Experts and industry watchers have clearly sent out the message that EMI holiday schemes are simply a ruse by builders to sell their current inventory of apartments at exorbitant prices. Once you take a loan, home buyers would simply find themselves locked on to a rate, and with the prospect of a decelerating market, it is clear that anyone who buys property at current rates is looking at years of sliding property values.


Read the HT story here

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Saffron Group Talks Long-Term in Real Estate Now

The biggest real estate private equity fund invested in India, the Saffron Group, is now talking long-term about Indian real estate.

How many times has this happened in your life? You bought shares of a company in the hope of gaining 30% in a couple of months, and you waxed eloquently its virtues at a South Mumbai champagne party. You woke up groggy-eyed next morning, and winced as you found out that the stock you hold has crumbled 20%.

You are not worried, you tell yourself, because you have purchased these shares for the long term. Now, you are quoting Warren Buffet and how he made his billions holding on to good stocks. In the long term - never mind Keynes says we are all dead - you convince yourself, your share is sure to return 5 times.

If you are sheepishly reading this and saying: Touche, how true; you are not to be ashamed. You are now in blue-blooded company; for some of the astute investors in Indian real estate, Saffron Group, said that it will remain put for a minimum of five years in upcoming properties and will buy out assets with assured rental income.

"Our strategy is to be a leading player in the field. We don't have any short-term view. The industry is growing and it will yield better results for another 10-15 years," Kapoor said.

This means just one thing: upcoming projects are not expected to return in less than 5 years, and Saffron is waiting in the wings to pick up distress sales of properties.

The Group, a brain-child of Ajoy Veer Kapoor and his peers from the banking fraternity, is the promoter of Euronext-listed Yatra Capital, an India-focused real estate fund. Yatra Capital has already raised $260 million in the Indian real estate market. A $350-450 million unlisted real estate fund, launched in February 2008, had an anchor investment of $75 million from Standard Life UK. It is expected to close by the end of 2008.

If you just purchased real estate in India, hold on to your property for the next 10-15 years, for gone are the super returns of 2004-07. No more 30% each year. For that matter, considering an 8 percent inflation tick-in, your interest rate on the home loan is certain to rise further.

Read the Business Standard story here

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H&S in British Housing Market

When Eclectic Investor spoke in February 2008 of the paanwala top in the Indian housing market, many scoffed. However April 8, 2008, the the Economist has said that the party is over in the British housing market. There are views being propounded that the real-estate bust is slowly moving eastward from US, to UK, and now to Middle East, India and China.

However, have a look at the picture. Technical traders would recognized a very familiar pattern.

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India's Exploding Real Estate Market: Shades of the Florida Condo Bubble

By Anshu Sharma

I just returned after spending a few weeks in New Delhi. The incredible pace of growth in India inspired me to see if I can participate in the growth by investing. India does not allow direct investment in equity markets for non-resident Indian citizens (and definitely not foreigners). I do invest in US-listed ADR like Infosys and exchange traded funds or closed-end funds like the India Fund. But I wanted to invest directly. One option available is real-estate.

The numbers when it comes to real-estate just don't add up though. Real-estate in India is incredibly expensive and not just by Indian standards (with per capita GDP of US$ 700 per annum). Here are some numbers:

• Condos in New Delhi, India: 2-bedroom, 1000 sq ft apartment for $200,000 [$200 per sq ft] (Source: 99acres.com)
  
• Condos in Chicago, USA: 2-bedroom, 1000 sq ft apartment for $400,000 [$400 per sq ft] (Source: Google Housing)

Now, remember that the median income in Chicago is 50 times more than that of New Delhi. Why Chicago? Because New Delhi can grow in all 4 directions much like Vegas can (and ChicagoManhattan and San Francisco that are geographically restricted. can in 2 directions) as compared to

Next, look at agricultural land prices.

• Agricultural land in Faridabad, Haryana (adjacent to New Delhi much like New Jersey is to New York): $250,000 per acre (source: 99acres.com)
• Agricultural land in New Jersey: $12,000 per acre (source: USDA, and for comparison its $6,000 per acre in California and $8,000 per acre in Florida)

One may argue that Haryana is too close to Delhi. Land in Dehradun is available at only $100,000 per acre while its much cheaper at only $20,000 per acre in villages in Himachal Pradesh. All at prices way higher than Florida or California. Commercial land is even more expensive.

The issue of population density pops up every time I discuss this. Let me be clear, the population density of India is much higher than USA. But, when you compare New Jersey and India - New Jersey is actually slightly more densely populated. And New Jersey is much more densely populated than Haryana, India.

The next issue that comes up is one of regulation and availability. Yes, real-estate is regulated in India with laws that prevent easy buying and selling and land records that are poorly maintained. This simply means that the prices can be artificially inflated in the near term (that could last several years) but in the long-term must return to rational values.

Will someone please explain this to me? How can farmers that make less than $1000 per annum continue to own land that is valued (notionally) at several $100K? Are the low rental yields (2-5%) indicative of the bubble?

" people told us house prices never go down on a national level, and that there had never been a default of an investment-grade-rated mortgage bond," Mr. Paulson says.

"Mortgage experts were too caught up" in the housing boom.

In several interviews, Paulson made his first comments on how he made his historic coup. Merely holding a different opinion from the blundering herd wasn't enough to produce huge profits. He also had to think up a technical way to bet against the housing and mortgage markets, given that, as he notes, "you can't short houses."

I heard the same arguments repeatedly in India - house prices never go down etc. We shall see!

Anshu Sharma lives and works in the Silicon Valley. His current focus is on Software as a Service and the emerging SaaS Ecosystem.

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Seeking Alpha in Indian Real Estate

By Mukul Pareek

As US housing prices come down to more sustainable levels after a prolonged boom, one can only wonder if we can expect the same story to be played out in other economies. Maybe there is some alpha waiting to be picked up. One place that stands out from a sustainability perspective is India where real estate, whether residential or commercial, seems to have completely disconnected from local economic fundamentals.

Imagine the dusty suburbs of Bangalore, Delhi and Mumbai. Imagine neighborhoods with high rises that have no reliable power or water supply, battered roads if at all, no public transport and a shadow of crime such that locked houses are not safe even for a day. Now imagine these houses commanding prices that match prices in expensive New Jersey suburbs. Go figure. Perhaps there are positive returns to be had in a bet on these. But as John Paulson was quoted in the WSJ , “you can’t short houses”. But maybe we can short some of the companies that build and sell these houses.

The Indian equity markets have enjoyed a tremendous bull run over the past few years. In 2007 the Indian markets were up 47%. Real estate was up even more on a frenzy that makes New York and London decidedly tame. Seeing the time to cash in, multiple ‘mega-issues’ or IPOs from real estate developers came out in 2007. Exorbitantly priced to begin with, they did not disappoint their investors. These IPO stocks outperformed the index (the one that was up by 47%!) by a handsome margin. We look at how some of the larger public offerings have done since they were listed. Terrific!

Which brings us to the point of this post. How sustainable are half a million dollar apartments in a country with an average wage of about $1000 (a year). Sure there are rich people in poor countries. Maybe enough to keep things going merrily forever. But maybe not.

Most people do believe that this is a bubble that is bound to burst. Perhaps it is only a question of when, and not if. But as said Keynes – the market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent. There is no shortage of alpha seekers (and of academics & economists ridiculed on television) that were hurt calling a false top to the real estate market in the US. The same can happen anywhere, but given the fizz going out of the global markets, the Indian bubble may probably be short lived too.

One bet may be to short some or a diversified portfolio of these real estate companies. The Indian markets have already seen a correction in 2008, and that may or may not continue. These stocks do contain significant beta, so to guard against the risk of the general market going up, perhaps a market neutral short position in some of these companies may be desirable. As is the nature of the game, many of these companies have not been listed for too long, so betas that I calculated in the table below are probably unreliable but perhaps not a bad starting point for making an estimate for the future.

Here are some tickers (on nseindia.com, or add .ns after the ticker for Yahoo Finance) with some data. All information is approximate, US dollar conversions have been done using a single rate of USD 1 = INR 40. Notice the volatility in the stocks, they go up and down fast for sure. Also look at their fantastic profit margins. Who cares about EBITDA when net income to revenue ratios are straight out of wonderland!

There are a number of Indian stocks that are listed either on the NASDAQ or the NYSE as ADRs. Many of them are also included in the broader Indian S&P Nifty-50 market index (referred to above). These include the following:

List of Indian stocks listed in the US that are also a part of the S&P Nifty-50 market index:
Dr Reddy's Labs - RDY
HDFC Bank - HDB
ICICI Bank - IBN
Infosys - INFY
Satyam - SAY
Satyam Technologies - SIFY
Sterlite - SLT
Tata Communications - TCL
Tata Motors - TTM
Wipro Ltd - WIT

The list above covers industry, banking, communications and technology, but does not include any exposure to the real estate sector - except probably with the exception of HDB and IBN that have mortgage lending operations in India.

This opens up an interesting possibility - consider building a synthetic portfolio where one goes short on the entire market using IFN, IIF or INP; and simultaneously going long on a portfolio of individual stocks listed above in a way that the net exposure is only to real estate or related stocks. Unfortunately, real estate stocks currently comprise only about 4% of the Indian stock market capitalization, and as of the date of this post only Unitech is part of the Nifty-50. That makes this strategy a bit tricky to achieve but in the coming days as DLF and other Indian companies get included in the Nifty-50, it would be possible to create a portfolio that is strongly correlated (positively or negatively) to the Indian real estate sector.

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This article first appeared on Mukul Pareek's Blog

Realty Gripe Strikes PE Fund Managers

The gripe is now being seen in the stomachs of the fund managers at PE funds. Until December 2007 and a few months in 2008, they were seen sashaying with the developers, wiggling their dollars pulled out of desperate investors in the US, who were facing a massive downturn in their real estate markets. Somehow, these PE funds were able to convince them that India and Asia were insulated from any US downturn, and that instead of earning 4% of returns in US, it was wise to invest for 25% in India.

They are not dancing anymore, instead their ass is grass, if this realty slump in India continues for another 6 months, and most likely it will. We need one nice high in the stock markets, and that seems to be coming, to make retail investors and baby speculators from entering lock stock and barrel in to real estate again. This will be the final high, because, post this, we will see such a severe shock, that it could be that real estate in India will not rise again.

When first mentioned in February, that a top had been reached in real estate, my own colleagues did not agree, but now as they see their homes drop from Rs 60 lakh to Rs 54 lakh, they are beginning to see the dawn of reality.

Now, evidence is showing that nearly 30% of realty deals are stuck as PE fund are asking developers to revalue the deals, else no money would come in. It appears a real close haircut if no a shave is in the offing for realty players. The norms for valuing real estate are no longer butter and jam, but hard crust.

Even Renuka Ramnath of ICICI Ventures, which has raised two funds of $1.5 billion, for India-specific investments, had to be prodded in to saying that these funds would be deployed in to real estate. She was on the BBC, talking more about infrastructure and retail, while the anchor pushed for realty, which she very half-heartedly agreed to. Reading between the lines, basically, real estate is no longer the favorite child of PE funds.

Even Saffron Asset Advisors, a fund that is relatively gung-ho over real estate, is very measured in their words. This fund has raised a lot of money for sector-specific investment, and has a large proportion allocated to real estate. However, Ritesh Vora, director (investments) for Saffron, said evaluations are more rigorous than they were a year ago.

But the situation was not so tough for real estate companies earlier. With the stock market on a downslide, real estate companies deferred their IPO plans and turned to PE funds to raise money. According to ICICI Securities, during the last two years, around 60 funds raised $30 billion in assets to invest in Indian real estate.

According to Cushman & Wakefield’s joint managing director, Anurag Mathur, the focus on delivery timelines, costs, quality and sales targets are now becoming the norm. Om Chaudhry, CEO of FIRE Capital Fund said more realistic valuations of projects are being seen.

Read the Hindu Business Line story here


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