Builders Abandon Leasing Dreams, Push for Outright Sales

Futuristic dreams harbored by real estate developers, of building castles with cheap credit of 2007 in the market, and leasing them to desperate home and office owners, are now beginning to face reality that in the end, there is indeed no free - or cheap - lunch.

This is borne out by the fact that is that real estate developers in Mumbai and even the rest of the country are now pushing outright sales of their commercial properties - offices, retail stores, hotels - instead of leasing them out. These were the same companies who were hoarding apartments in the hope of selling them at astronomical prices.

In some areas of say Mumbai city, residential and commercial spaces skyrocketed 300% as investors became intoxicated in the highs of investing in real estate. Overnight, even menials were dishing advice to their owners, having seen their slums jump up to crores in value, as companies aquired their lands to build towers and further sell them to occupants and investors.
Those dreams however appear to have fizzled out, the impact of which will become glaring by 2009.

Developers today are ready to sell properties at a rate which is seen attractive by buyers today. Their focus is now on purchase, build and sell off for immediate gains, instead of holding back on structural space and leasing them instead.

For example, Raheja Corporation has started selling off its office spaces in PUne, Hyderabad and Navi Mumbai. Even subsidiary Raheja companies are following the same strategy in Mumbai.

Another real estate company, Indiabulls Real Estate, which saw a meteoric rise in 2007, has recently started selling their office spaces located on Tulsi Pipe Road, Jupiter Mills and Elphinstone Mills.

Its pride construction, the One Indiabulls Center, which was built to have expensive leases on office space, is now being sold off piece by piece, according to reports in the market. Even Ashok Piramal group's Peninsula Land Ltd (PLL), which is developing commercial buildings in Ashok Gardens - a premium residential project comprising 2-, 3-, 4- and 5-bhk (bedroom, hall, kitchen) apartments located at upper Parel in Mumbai - is selling off the commercial building instead of leasing the property.

Peninsula Land, which had sold off 5 lakh sq ft of Dawn Mills, is now in the process of selling complete 19 lakh sq ft. Realty major, DLF too is in the process of selling a part of its big commercial establishments instead of leasing. Competitor, Hiranandani Constructions is understood to have not entered into a single land deal since the past few months.

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Distress Sales Await Real Estate Investors

Real estate companies have so far been booking paper losses, but after Diwali, these losses will be real, according to Nayan Bavishi, a UK investor of the Baron Group, who invests in Indian and Dubai real estate. This should lead to some sudden wave of distress sales, which would bring apartment prices to realistic levels. "Right now, it is only depletion of paper profits; wait till after Diwali and their [real estate companies]'s pockets will get eroded further."

The Indian real estate market has been hurt by a slide in the stock market, rapidly rising interest rates and aggressive demands from private equity investors. After five years of boom, real estate firms in India are grappling with lukewarm sales and cash crunches as inflated property prices and interest rates at near-decade highs scare away buyers.

"The aggression for acquiring land has disappeared. Deal volumes are down 35-40 percent," said Anuj Puri, who heads property consultant Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj. Till last year, property firms, flush with funds from public offers or advance bookings, rushed to bid for land parcels, even at distant locations in metros, and in second-tier towns.

Even mid-size developers in India say they hold land reserves of 60-100 million sq ft, sufficient for projects planned in the next 3-4 years. But slumping demand could drive down land prices soon, leading to some distress sales, officials say. "We have not acquired an inch of land in nine months. I think by December-January, land prices should soften," Vyomesh Shah, Managing Director of Akruti City told Reuters late last month.

Akruti City, a leading developer, has not acquired any land in the last 9 months. A shortage of cash has caused delay in projects and it is likely that some announced projects may not even take off the ground. Builders are now unable to fund through advance bookings by buyers. "Developers normally did construction through booking advances for planned projects. Sales are down, so obviously there are delays," said an analyst at a Mumbai-based brokerage that has revised downward target price on sector stocks by 15-25 percent.

Most real estate firms are still getting by with advance bookings done 18-24 months ago, a sustained lack of demand in the coming quarters may worsen the situation.

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South Mumbai Slumps; Jolly Maker Flat has no Takers

An apartment in Jolly Maker Apartment I and II, has no takers despite a 27 percent price cut.

Located in the prime residential area of Cuffe Parade, in the southern part of Mumbai, this flat - measuring 1,700 sq ft carpet area - was priced at Rs 18 crore in January 2008. Today, even at a discounted Rs 13 crore, the apartment remains unsold. [pic: World Trade Center and IDBI Tower, located near the JMA I and II]

Investors who rode the wave of the great Indian real estate juggernaut of 2004-2008 are now wringing their hands. Not just individuals, but even corporate speculators, unrelated to the realty business, who were lured in to real estate speculation, are now stuck.

Consider another case of an apartment that Siemens India put up for an auction sale in June 2008. With a base price of Rs 4 crore, the auction received 3 interests, two of whom bid Rs 3.75 crore each - in what appears to be a coordinated bid - lower than the base price. In better times, Siemens would have had a choc-o-bloc room with bidders vying to outdo each other. Forget a significant premium, Siemens had to contend with a lower price.

Cut to individual investors, who picked up properties at severely high premiums in areas like Noida, Gurgaon and Greater Noida, as well as in Mumbai and Bangalore. Almost all of them, loaded with floating rate interest loans, are now facing higher interest charges, as the value of their properties are slipping. They all face the prospect of a negative equity, where the monthly EMI is higher than the monthly return that such an investment would face in a riskfree bank deposit.

Declines of up to 30% are already being seen in many areas of the cities. Even areas which are usually considered hot and insulated from price cuts - like South Mumbai - have seen a 15% decline. The major victims of these declines are investors - those who purchased homes with an intention of selling them to genuine users for hefty prices. In Delhi and its suburbs, nearly two of three residential transactions are resales.

The main attraction for investors was the fact that property returned 200-300% for those who invested in late 2003 to early 2004. Investors would take loans, book the apartments, and sell them off before the year was through. This does not appear to be the option any more, and with less interest from new investors, demand has tapered off, leaving investors stranded with high loans and declining value.

The lack of interest is affecting residential developers too. Residential projects are usually self-financing in nature, meaning developers use the money they get from customer advances to fund the development. This money is used by builders to build projects, making their investments virtually riskfree. With investors shying away from new realty projects, developers are finding it tough to get finance for their projects.

The high cost of raw materials is also impacting developers, who are now focusing on completing projects rather than signing on new ones. Investors continue to hold on to their properties, latching on to the ubiquitous hope, that prices would rise.

Discounts abound the realty space. Apartments at Parsvnath City in Dharuhera near Delhi, have a list price of Rs 1,800 per sq ft, but even with a discount of 4% buyers are hard to come by. In Bangalore, a 2-bedroom apartment located in Indiranagar, purchased for Rs 29 lakh, three years ago is now available for Rs 34 lakh, 20 percent less than what it cost six months ago.

However, there does not appear a respite in sight. Another 15 percent correction is expected by property market consultants, and with exhibitions of distress sales of apartments planned by real-estate service providers, it may soon be a bonanza time for bargain hunters.

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