So Far Rs 7702 Crore Exits!

Yesterday's figures (May 25th) were disheartening again. The FIIs pulled out another Rs 1,635 crore, bringing the May figures to Rs 7072 crore. This amounts to about $1.5 billion, which should end the selling spree. In fact, this day, (May 26th), the Nifty moved beyond the 3,256 mark but could not sustain above it. This means that 2,760 still holds and we can see this some time. When this would happen is difficult to predict but the 2-year low is still to be made.

Today's global indicators are showing that Dow and Nasdaq registered their first straight 3-day upmove. The FTSE and Nikkei were also up. The US economy appears to have cooled off if one went by the inflation figures which were lower than Fed estimates.

Monday (May 29th) would be interesting and many are awaiting it with great anticipation. The last hour closing was a doji and one learned friend says that this may be an indication of reversal.

Panic?—FIIs Pulled Out Rs 5,439 crore

Today's FNO expiry took the markets up. Distressing as it might seem, late-night data release showed that FIIs pulled out an additional Rs 1,935 crore on May 24, taking the net sales for May to Rs 5,439 crore.

Merrill-Lynch released a report today saying that it was normal for FIIs to withdraw about $1 billion each from emerging markets. China, Korea and Indonesia have shown commensurate slides, indicating this. It also correlates with the fact that demand for dollars has gone up–FIIs are sending money back home. The dollar today was about Rs 45.70 per unit.

Yesterday's post had said that FIIs have been known to pull out about $800-$900 million in previous years in one month, usually May or October. If this is to hold good this time, then over the next 3-4 trading sessions we would expect them to buy back heavily. Remember that this is mere conjecture.

Nonetheless, if it happens, it will set us a benchmark for future corrections, and also force us to be cautious in October.

Among other things, the Dow and Nasdaq have started moving up, having been flat yesterday. US GDP data shows that the economy has slowed down enough to contain inflation, and Fed chairman, Bernanke may pause interest rate hike.

Why Panic, It's Normal FII Activity

MAY comes to haunt once again. The bad news is that the Indian stock markets have had a hard knock and tumble. As usual fear grips with doomsday conversations doing the rounds that the FIIs have pulled out their money. This is however a fact. The good news, however, is that this is nothing unusual. FII pullouts have repeated at relatively predicitible points in the past.

The fact that I have woken up early to write this means it has been playing on my mind since last evening, and each time I have had such nagging ideas I have been absolutely correct. I say this rather humbly.

The total amount of money pulled out by FIIs this month is Rs 3,500 crore.The last time the index fell, in October 2005, FIIs had pulled out Rs 3,805 crore. At the time, Nifty index slumped to 2300.

So what makes it different this time. Despite all intelligent reasons attributed to it–rising US interest rates, metals meltdown–as of today, the FIIs have pulled out less than they did in October 2005. This is positive news.

There was another occassion, May 2004, when such a large sum was sucked out by the FIIs, again Rs 3,250 crore.

In my opinion, considering the large sums of monies involved, FIIIs would pull at most another 500 to 750 crore, taking the Nifty index lower by another 200 points to about 2,750. From this point onward we should see the markets start to move up.

Despite all the noise around, I continue to be very bullish. Yet I love and will embrace 2750 because it is an essential part of the great times ahead.