The Mullahs Have Landed - in Dubai

Dubai is soon headed for a crisis of such huge proportions that its expatriate population has never seen ever.

A double whammy of weak crude prices - down from $150 to $50 a barrel - and a weaker US currency - petrodollars - will make its ruling Executive council scour high and low for ideas on how to fund the highly leveraged property market balloon it has created and what to make of asset depreciation. In many ways, the government has got caught in a whirlpool of its own making.

For expatriates, especially those who made laughable investments believing that Las Vegas could be created around the fringes of Islamic fundamentalism, this could be the wake-up call for a long dreary nuclear winter.

With the pain starting to ride down the nerve to common people, Dubai's success and any impending failure would get straightaway tied to the non-Islamic indulgences of the place. Financial pain gives rise to conservatism and religious extremism. With Dubai sandwiched between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia, it could get caught in any crossfire.

The role of Dubai has never been understood; why is Dubai so powerful within the Emirates - even though it has no oil, no manufacturing base, nor has it been able to achieve Singapore's status as a port of repute. Yet, it has been able to hold up to Abu Dhabi, which owns 90 percent of the UAE's oil, and whose rulers, although more powerful, are far more low profile.

One reason that comes to mind is that Dubai is a refiner for Iran's oil, and a lot of refining margins are tied to the price of oil, which means the last four years were a bonanza for Dubai. This perhaps explains its clout. With clout, comes ambition, and with ambition a penchant for breaking rules, and Dubai has had all of it. In fact its direction toward becoming a tourism hub for Middle East revelers has always been watched closely by the Islamic right.

Dubai has no choice, because tourism in desert cannot takeoff without prostitution, alcohol or gambling. There is always talk about how activities in Dubai are frowned upon by the conservative Islamic countries. Some time in 2005 there was a rumor of some threats by Islamic extremists to bomb City Center, a shopping mall in Dubai, all of which was well-handled and overcome without alarm. Clearly, it had become evident even then that Dubai's success was getting increasingly uncomfortable for some, and sooner or later there was bound to be trouble.

However, before Islamic conservatism could get it, the credit crisis from the West got its goat. As much as charging interest is haram (sin) in Islam, this did not stop the mortgage on construction from becoming the fuel for Dubai's real estate bubble, as it goaded the desire of millions of expats of owning castles in the sand.

With bright ideas and some really grandiose schemes indeed being delivered, it was western money, and speculation drove up the market in Dubai. There was a time in 2007, when financial executives from New York, speculated on villas in Jumeirah, booking a villa one week, and selling it out the next for a profit. It was this false sense of a bullish market that encouraged lesser mortals among the expatriates to participate in the orgy. Until of course, it all blew up last week in their faces.

Finally, as the sand settles, people will begin to see Dubai what it it really is - a city of imagination but very little lastability: without natural resources, like water and fertile soul, and no oil, it looks like this time the devil has come to stay.

Without the sins of the West - alcohol, prostitution, gambling - Dubai would have certainly found it a challenge to sustain its tourism story. Now, as the hype of the glamor and glitz, gets replaced by caution and conservatism, the Mullahs are now going to have all the time to take a hard look at what Dubai represents, and see how it fits in to the general laws of Shariah. With Dubai now having to increasingly depend on Abu Dhabi and Saudi money, the Mullahs have surely landed.

Dubailand Property Available for Half Price

Dubai-based Elysian Real Estate sent a text message to up to 40,000 mobile phones advertising distressed property sales. The text offered a luxury six-bedroom, six-bathroom villa in Dubailand, a multibillion-dollar luxury theme park on the outskirts of the city-state, at an advertised cost of about £3.86 million – about half its original price.

Dubai's Burj Tower Prices Crash 50 Percent in 3 Weeks

Speculators in Dubai's Burj Tower - the tallest tower in the world - are in for a rude shock. They have woken up to find that their property values have plummeted up to 50 percent, that too in just 3 weeks. According to brokers, most properties in the Burj Tower district have slumped by at least 22 percent. These were same apartments and commercial establishments that had risen 88-200 percent in the year until September 2008.

Zero premium and even discount sales have become rampant as investors rush out of sand castles and in to cash. Prices outside the tower fell from an average of AED 3,500 ($952) per square foot to AED 2,700, and on 8 Boulevard Walk, for instance, dropped from AED 3,300 per sq ft to AED 2,500 per sq ft in three weeks – a 24 percent decrease. Old Town quarter of the development had fallen 30 per cent in the past month, along with nearly 20 per cent at the South Ridges and Residences areas.

Price fluctuations in the Burj Dubai tower had been far more volatile because of the high percentage of speculators owning these properties, according to brokers. Some had since been sold at significant losses to generate cash. However, they said, the most expensive floors, such as those branded by Armani, sold at about AED 14,000 per sq ft and were holding much of their value.

Abu Dhabi’s high-end developments have also been affected. Many of the buyers appeared to have no intention of holding on to the property long enough to make the first required payments to keep possession of it. Like Al Reem Island, which had 95 percent speculators with no intention to make any payment after the deposit. Residential properties in some cases [are now put into the market] at minus 15 per cent premium.

A floor of offices that was offered in Al Shams Abu Dhabi at AED 2,500 per sq ft three weeks ago is now being offered at Dh2,100. Reem Island's properties purchased at up to AED 2,700 per sq ft are now available at AED 1,800.

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