tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19301908.post4905134092368698097..comments2014-06-26T17:47:05.089+05:30Comments on Eclectic Investor: Why I Feel It's Not Time to Sell - SainikEclectic Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16398703010402269262noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19301908.post-55499360263758935782008-07-14T07:55:00.000+05:302008-07-14T07:55:00.000+05:30dear shenoy,i read ur own analysis dated april2 , ...dear shenoy,<BR/><BR/>i read ur own analysis dated april2 , 2007 (or is it some other deepak shenoy ??) in the blog : "seeking alpha" where it has been analysed that the reported sensex p/e on the bse website is wrong. the actual p/e is much lower , becos BSE considers annual earnins, vis a vis nse considering trailing 4 quarter earnings.<BR/><BR/>i hv taken a rough estimate of 850 from numerous research reports of both indian and foreign broking houses.<BR/><BR/>i have also taken projections based on these reputed broking houses.<BR/><BR/>one also needs to consider that the eps for companies like TISCO will be revised upwards due to its amalgamation with CORUS.<BR/><BR/>finally , i am unable to understand why the major companies in the sensex should not grow by 20 % , based on what the mgt is saying.<BR/><BR/>we recently got the results of infy where , even with caution they hv revised their rupee guidance upwards. Larsen mgt said recently that they will maintain a growth rate in excess of 35 %.<BR/><BR/>when people were super bullish in january 2008, i was sceptical. when people are superbearish now , i am still sceptical !!!!.sainikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11660182551104214251noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19301908.post-80126987217972392442008-07-06T19:16:00.000+05:302008-07-06T19:16:00.000+05:30Sir, May I ask how we get a figure of EPS 1050 in ...Sir, May I ask how we get a figure of EPS 1050 in March 09. As of today (July 04,08) the Sensex EPS is 810. (From bseindia site: 13,454 Sensex is 16.61 P/E) <BR/><BR/>So to grow to 1050 that's a 30% growth in 9 months? That will be a 40% annualised growth? I find that extremely difficult to believe in these times of a) high interest rates and b) global slowdown.<BR/><BR/>If we have only 10% growth going forward till march 09, which I think is more likely, EPS would be Rs. 900 in March 09. A 12 P/E on that is Sensex 10,800. <BR/><BR/>I would find some value around these levels (select stocks) but value in the broad market at say 3100 nifty or whereabouts.Deepak Shenoyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04209677935830502120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19301908.post-40589609834490892482008-07-05T23:52:00.000+05:302008-07-05T23:52:00.000+05:30You're quite right. Sell real estate but not stock...You're quite right. Sell real estate but not stocks. The market may go sideways for the next 1-2 years fluctuating between Sensex 9000 and 15000. If you have a SIP keep it going because you're never going to catch the low.<BR/><BR/>Real estate is different. Prices are hughly inflated and the drop is usually over 2-3 years at least. Expect to see prices 40% to 50% less 3 years from now.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15737102792255545445noreply@blogger.com